Why Anthony Reyes Hasn't Been A Good MLB Pitcher

Anthony Reyes has been a favorite of many statheads. He has consistently posted excellent peripherals in both the major and minor leagues. In fact, coming into 2007 PECOTA projected an ERA of 3.81 for Reyes and Ron Shandler gave a projection of a 4.10 ERA. Reyes had a career 3.32 ERA in the minors with an excellent K/BB ratio of 5.51 coming into 2007. Even the scouts have liked him as Reyes was rated at the #1 St. Louis Cardinals’ prospect in 2006 by Baseball America. So given all this, why is Reyes 0-10 with a 6.40 ERA in the majors this year? And what can we learn about minor league pitching stats from this?

The second question might be the easier question to answer. In 2003 and 2004, Dayn Perry, writing for Baseball Prospectus, investigated minor league pitching stats. He created two groups of active major league pitchers, one group of pitchers having an ERA+ of 110 with 1000 or more career innings or an ERA+ of 120 with 500 or more career innings, and another group of pitchers who had an ERA+ of 95 with 500 or more career innings. By comparing the two groups’ minor league stats, Perry found that the group with far worse major league stats actually had better peripheral stats in the minor leagues. The only areas where the superior major league pitchers performed better in the minors were with the stats H/IP, HR/IP, and ERA. Curious to see if these results still existed, and to see if Reyes could fit into this second group of pitchers, I created the same two groups that Perry created with active pitchers today. These were the results:

Elite Major League Pitchers (ERA+ of 110 with 1000 or more career innings or ERA+ of 120 with 500 or more career innings)

Name H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 ERA K/BB BAC Schilling 8.4 3.13 7.14 0.47 3.23 2.3 0.277 Burnett 6.8 5.5 10.7 0.51 3.82 2 0.316 Halladay 8.9 2.95 5.89 0.76 3.84 2 0.307 Pettitte 7.9 2.58 7.21 0.31 2.52 2.8 0.297 Mussina 7.5 2.08 8.34 0.58 2.42 4 0.294 Clemens 6 2.24 10.6 0.26 1.41 4.7 0.273 Sabathia 7.4 4.51 10.5 0.58 3.58 2.3 0.319 K Rogers 8.4 4.22 7.88 0.62 4.25 1.9 0.361 J Santana 9 3.37 8.77 0.73 4.77 2.6 0.338 Buehrle 8.3 1.37 6.58 0.66 3.11 4.8 0.302 Lackey 8.5 2.9 7.01 0.71 3.76 2.4 0.309 Colon 6.6 3.88 9.29 0.43 2.41 2.4 0.283 Glavine 7.6 4.02 7.14 0.66 3.23 1.8 0.284 Hudson 8.9 5.36 11.2 1.03 4.86 2.1 0.298 Smoltz 8.4 3.82 6.04 0.74 4.13 1.6 0.299 Garcia 8.2 3.24 7.81 0.49 3.5 2.4 0.303 Sheets 8 3.38 7.44 0.5 2.75 2.2 0.304 C Zambrano 7.8 4.26 7.46 0.44 3.53 1.8 0.297 Carpenter 8.7 4.3 7.21 0.71 3.92 1.7 0.32 Oswalt 8.1 2.52 9.13 0.45 3.13 3.6 0.319 Maddux 7.9 2.75 5.66 0.29 2.86 2.1 0.278 Webb 8.8 3.16 8.16 0.33 3.71 2.6 0.332 R Johnson 6.8 6.8 9.64 0.46 3.46 1.4 0.297 Lowe 9.4 3.02 5.51 0.54 4.11 1.8 0.314 Zito 7.2 4.24 9.95 0.42 3.18 2.4 0.305 Morris 9.3 2.67 7.32 0.66 3.85 2.7 0.333 8.2 3.55 7.68 0.55 3.51 2.2 0.306

Other Major League Pitchers (ERA+ of 95 with 500 or more career innings)

Name H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 K/BB ERA BAC Towers 9.9 1.3 6.48 1.02 5 3.96 0.334 Wright 6.8 4.49 8.73 0.53 1.9 3.01 0.282 Seo 8.8 1.86 7.19 0.77 3.9 3.45 0.318 Fossum 8.4 2.34 9.45 0.42 4 3.08 0.335 Maroth 9.4 3.12 5.34 0.63 1.7 3.86 0.316 R Ortiz 7.9 3.43 9.6 0.93 2.8 3.45 0.313 Ponson 8.6 2.49 7.37 0.76 3 3.83 0.314 Od Perez 8 2.99 9.81 0.71 3.3 2.94 0.328 S Elarton 7.7 3.23 7.9 0.62 2.4 3.54 0.295 Reitsma 9.1 2.4 6.9 0.67 2.9 3.64 0.318 Ol Perez 7.8 4.12 9.88 0.79 2.4 3.68 0.323 Schoenweis 10 2.93 7.22 0.77 2.5 4.92 0.344 Redman 9.4 3.81 7.85 0.8 2.1 4.48 0.343 Eaton 9.1 3.15 7.04 0.62 2.2 3.69 0.324 Vargas 8.2 3.56 8.64 0.92 2.4 3.94 0.317 Dempster 8.7 3.22 7.84 0.89 2.4 3.78 0.326 Chacon 8.5 3.88 8.66 0.66 2.2 3.85 0.323 Armas 8 3.32 7.62 0.59 2.3 3.08 0.301 Wasdin 8.7 2.01 7.31 0.84 3.6 3.67 0.347 Moehler 9.2 2.83 5.3 0.56 1.9 3.82 0.308 Lohse 9.2 2.63 6.82 0.79 2.6 4.18 0.324 Milton 7.2 2.71 8.55 0.52 3.2 3.08 0.286 Hendrickson 9.5 3.21 6.11 1.06 1.9 4.35 0.325 Tomko 8.1 2.24 8.68 0.91 3.9 3.57 0.316 Fogg 9.1 2.42 7.2 0.73 3 3.49 0.326 Lopez 9.1 3.57 7.51 0.61 2.1 3.99 0.469 Ru Ortiz 8 4.39 9.59 0.69 2.2 3.65 0.327 8.7 2.98 7.66 0.75 2.6 3.75 0.327

These are very similar to the results Perry found earlier. Despite better BB rates, K/BB rates, and near identical K rates, the lesser group of major league pitchers put up higher ERAs, hit rates, and HR rates. How does one explain these results? BAC, or batting average on contact, was a stat I added to the study that Perry did not look at. It is simply the batting average of the opposing batter when he makes contact. A common argument of scouts against finesse pitchers who put up impressive numbers in the minors is that their stuff isn’t good enough to get major league hitters out. They claim these finesse pitchers are able to take advantage of minor league hitters who can’t do the damage that major league hitters can. So how can we measure a minor league pitcher’s stuff if his minor league K rates and K/BB rates are deceiving? BAC measures how much damage opposing hitters do to a pitcher when they make contact. It includes home runs in the batting average, unlike batting average on balls in play (BABIP). When comparing the two groups, we see that the elite major league pitchers have a sizable advantage in BAC. This explains why the elite group of minor league pitchers were able to post much better hit rates that the lesser group. While there are a few exceptions, the .305 BAC mark seems to be a generally good cutoff mark between the elite and lesser group of pitchers. (Note- sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies against were not available in my data; therefore BAC may be slightly inaccurate).

The evaluation of pitchers has come a long way as we now understand that a pitcher’s walk rate, strikeout rate, and groundball and home run rate are the most important characteristics to analyze in the major leagues. However, looking at some of these statistics in the minor leagues could lead to improper conclusions about a player’s major league potential. When looking at a pitcher’s minor league statistics, HR/IP and BAC appear to be the best indicators of a pitcher’s future success in the major leagues while K/BB and BB/IP can be deceiving. And how about Anthony Reyes? Despite his gaudy peripheral statistics, Reyes gave up 0.84 HR/IP and a .322 BAC.