Why Anthony Reyes Hasn't Been A Good MLB Pitcher

2007-07-23T16:04:00.001-07:00

Anthony Reyes has been a favorite of many statheads. He has consistently posted excellent peripherals in both the major and minor leagues. In fact, coming into 2007 PECOTA projected an ERA of 3.81 for Reyes and Ron Shandler gave a projection of a 4.10 ERA. Reyes had a career 3.32 ERA in the minors with an excellent K/BB ratio of 5.51 coming into 2007. Even the scouts have liked him as Reyes was rated at the #1 St. Louis Cardinals’ prospect in 2006 by Baseball America. So given all this, why is Reyes 0-10 with a 6.40 ERA in the majors this year? And what can we learn about minor league pitching stats from this?

The second question might be the easier question to answer. In 2003 and 2004, Dayn Perry, writing for Baseball Prospectus, investigated minor league pitching stats. He created two groups of active major league pitchers, one group of pitchers having an ERA+ of 110 with 1000 or more career innings or an ERA+ of 120 with 500 or more career innings, and another group of pitchers who had an ERA+ of 95 with 500 or more career innings. By comparing the two groups’ minor league stats, Perry found that the group with far worse major league stats actually had better peripheral stats in the minor leagues. The only areas where the superior major league pitchers performed better in the minors were with the stats H/IP, HR/IP, and ERA. Curious to see if these results still existed, and to see if Reyes could fit into this second group of pitchers, I created the same two groups that Perry created with active pitchers today. These were the results:

Elite Major League Pitchers (ERA+ of 110 with 1000 or more career innings or ERA+ of 120 with 500 or more career innings)

Name	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	ERA	K/BB	BAC
Schilling	8.4	3.13	7.14	0.47	3.23	2.3	0.277
Burnett	6.8	5.5	10.7	0.51	3.82	2	0.316
Halladay	8.9	2.95	5.89	0.76	3.84	2	0.307
Pettitte	7.9	2.58	7.21	0.31	2.52	2.8	0.297
Mussina	7.5	2.08	8.34	0.58	2.42	4	0.294
Clemens	6	2.24	10.6	0.26	1.41	4.7	0.273
Sabathia	7.4	4.51	10.5	0.58	3.58	2.3	0.319
K Rogers	8.4	4.22	7.88	0.62	4.25	1.9	0.361
J Santana	9	3.37	8.77	0.73	4.77	2.6	0.338
Buehrle	8.3	1.37	6.58	0.66	3.11	4.8	0.302
Lackey	8.5	2.9	7.01	0.71	3.76	2.4	0.309
Colon	6.6	3.88	9.29	0.43	2.41	2.4	0.283
Glavine	7.6	4.02	7.14	0.66	3.23	1.8	0.284
Hudson	8.9	5.36	11.2	1.03	4.86	2.1	0.298
Smoltz	8.4	3.82	6.04	0.74	4.13	1.6	0.299
Garcia	8.2	3.24	7.81	0.49	3.5	2.4	0.303
Sheets	8	3.38	7.44	0.5	2.75	2.2	0.304
C Zambrano	7.8	4.26	7.46	0.44	3.53	1.8	0.297
Carpenter	8.7	4.3	7.21	0.71	3.92	1.7	0.32
Oswalt	8.1	2.52	9.13	0.45	3.13	3.6	0.319
Maddux	7.9	2.75	5.66	0.29	2.86	2.1	0.278
Webb	8.8	3.16	8.16	0.33	3.71	2.6	0.332
R Johnson	6.8	6.8	9.64	0.46	3.46	1.4	0.297
Lowe	9.4	3.02	5.51	0.54	4.11	1.8	0.314
Zito	7.2	4.24	9.95	0.42	3.18	2.4	0.305
Morris	9.3	2.67	7.32	0.66	3.85	2.7	0.333
	8.2	3.55	7.68	0.55	3.51	2.2	0.306

Other Major League Pitchers (ERA+ of 95 with 500 or more career innings)

Name	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	K/BB	ERA	BAC
Towers	9.9	1.3	6.48	1.02	5	3.96	0.334
Wright	6.8	4.49	8.73	0.53	1.9	3.01	0.282
Seo	8.8	1.86	7.19	0.77	3.9	3.45	0.318
Fossum	8.4	2.34	9.45	0.42	4	3.08	0.335
Maroth	9.4	3.12	5.34	0.63	1.7	3.86	0.316
R Ortiz	7.9	3.43	9.6	0.93	2.8	3.45	0.313
Ponson	8.6	2.49	7.37	0.76	3	3.83	0.314
Od Perez	8	2.99	9.81	0.71	3.3	2.94	0.328
S Elarton	7.7	3.23	7.9	0.62	2.4	3.54	0.295
Reitsma	9.1	2.4	6.9	0.67	2.9	3.64	0.318
Ol Perez	7.8	4.12	9.88	0.79	2.4	3.68	0.323
Schoenweis	10	2.93	7.22	0.77	2.5	4.92	0.344
Redman	9.4	3.81	7.85	0.8	2.1	4.48	0.343
Eaton	9.1	3.15	7.04	0.62	2.2	3.69	0.324
Vargas	8.2	3.56	8.64	0.92	2.4	3.94	0.317
Dempster	8.7	3.22	7.84	0.89	2.4	3.78	0.326
Chacon	8.5	3.88	8.66	0.66	2.2	3.85	0.323
Armas	8	3.32	7.62	0.59	2.3	3.08	0.301
Wasdin	8.7	2.01	7.31	0.84	3.6	3.67	0.347
Moehler	9.2	2.83	5.3	0.56	1.9	3.82	0.308
Lohse	9.2	2.63	6.82	0.79	2.6	4.18	0.324
Milton	7.2	2.71	8.55	0.52	3.2	3.08	0.286
Hendrickson	9.5	3.21	6.11	1.06	1.9	4.35	0.325
Tomko	8.1	2.24	8.68	0.91	3.9	3.57	0.316
Fogg	9.1	2.42	7.2	0.73	3	3.49	0.326
Lopez	9.1	3.57	7.51	0.61	2.1	3.99	0.469
Ru Ortiz	8	4.39	9.59	0.69	2.2	3.65	0.327
	8.7	2.98	7.66	0.75	2.6	3.75	0.327

These are very similar to the results Perry found earlier. Despite better BB rates, K/BB rates, and near identical K rates, the lesser group of major league pitchers put up higher ERAs, hit rates, and HR rates. How does one explain these results? BAC, or batting average on contact, was a stat I added to the study that Perry did not look at. It is simply the batting average of the opposing batter when he makes contact. A common argument of scouts against finesse pitchers who put up impressive numbers in the minors is that their stuff isn’t good enough to get major league hitters out. They claim these finesse pitchers are able to take advantage of minor league hitters who can’t do the damage that major league hitters can. So how can we measure a minor league pitcher’s stuff if his minor league K rates and K/BB rates are deceiving? BAC measures how much damage opposing hitters do to a pitcher when they make contact. It includes home runs in the batting average, unlike batting average on balls in play (BABIP). When comparing the two groups, we see that the elite major league pitchers have a sizable advantage in BAC. This explains why the elite group of minor league pitchers were able to post much better hit rates that the lesser group. While there are a few exceptions, the .305 BAC mark seems to be a generally good cutoff mark between the elite and lesser group of pitchers. (Note- sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies against were not available in my data; therefore BAC may be slightly inaccurate).

The evaluation of pitchers has come a long way as we now understand that a pitcher’s walk rate, strikeout rate, and groundball and home run rate are the most important characteristics to analyze in the major leagues. However, looking at some of these statistics in the minor leagues could lead to improper conclusions about a player’s major league potential. When looking at a pitcher’s minor league statistics, HR/IP and BAC appear to be the best indicators of a pitcher’s future success in the major leagues while K/BB and BB/IP can be deceiving. And how about Anthony Reyes? Despite his gaudy peripheral statistics, Reyes gave up 0.84 HR/IP and a .322 BAC.

My Baseball Thoughts/Research

Will Inman

Why Anthony Reyes Hasn't Been A Good MLB Pitcher